The Kansas City Chiefs are in rare territory, and not in a good way. Their season-opening trip to São Paulo ended in a frustrating 27-21 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, where Patrick Mahomes and the offense couldn’t quite find their flow until late. A week later, back home against the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City again stumbled in key moments, coming up short 20-17. For the first time in Mahomes’s career, the Chiefs are staring at a 0-2 start. But that’s not the real concern. What stands out most is how both games began with the offense stuck in neutral.
That trend has not gone unnoticed. Offensive coordinator Matt Nagy made it clear this week that patience has run out. His message wasn’t vague or filled with coach-speak; it was a pointed warning. The offensive unit’s coach said in a recent press conference, “The last two games now, we’ve gone three-and-out. We want to start fast. I don’t care if it’s run or pass, we want to get a touchdown on our first drive.” In other words, the Chiefs can’t afford to wait for Mahomes’s late-game magic. They need to seize control from the opening snap. Period.
Statistics Underline Why Nagy’s Demand Carries Legit Urgency
Through two games this season, Kansas City has converted just 12 of 27 third downs. This rate is substantially below their usual standard. Their offense has also produced only 38 total points (19.0 per game). This data places them well below their long-term average of around 27 points per game since 2016.
Historically, the Chiefs have been among the league’s best at scripting first drives. Notably, when they’ve scored on the opening possession, their win rate and points per game both rise significantly. However, in this season, both opening drives have ended in three-and-outs, which was a costly departure from their norm. Digging deeper, efficiency data shows how play design is compounding the issue.
Per expert data, the Chiefs are averaging 0.09 EPA per play from under center, compared to -0.02 EPA per play from shotgun. The passing splits are even more dramatic: +0.53 EPA per pass from under center, versus -0.16 from shotgun. Even the run game follows this pattern. Running backs have generated -0.6 EPA from under-center looks, which is manageable, but a disastrous -3.7 from shotgun. In short, the Chiefs are getting significantly more value when mixing formations and playing balanced football, but opening drives so far have leaned on predictable shotgun sets that stall momentum before it begins.
This is why an opening-drive touchdown matters so much. A fast start would reset the tempo, which would give Mahomes more freedom to mix aggressive throws with high-percentage options. It would also let receivers get better positioning early and give Travis Kelce a chance to set a physical tone.
First drives with scores shift how opposing defenses approach the rest of the game. It often forces them to play tighter and open up chunk-play opportunities later. More importantly, it would allow Reid and Nagy to lean into what the numbers already show: under-center efficiency is giving them more return on both passes and runs, while shotgun predictability has been a drag on drives.
There is also a cascading effect on the defense. A scoring drive to open the game gives Steve Spagnuolo’s (defensive coordinator) unit a cushion, keeps them fresh, and builds energy in the stadium. Instead of defending short fields after quick three-and-outs, they can take the field with momentum on their side. Over time, that difference shows up in the fourth quarter, where games are won and lost.
On a serious note, Nagy’s demand isn’t just about urgency, but it is also about recovering what the Chiefs have produced in their most dominant seasons. With points per game slipping, third-down efficiency lagging, and clear evidence that formation usage is dragging down productivity, Kansas City cannot afford to keep easing into games. Scoring early isn’t optional anymore. It’s the reset button their season desperately needs.
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